Thoughts on the Market
Unprecedented is the word of the day. US Q2 2020 GDP estimated to be -25% from Q1 (seasonally adjusted). The worst prior since quarterly data started in 1947 was -10% in Q1 1958.1 Trailing 4-week US unemployment claims is 22.0 million. The worst prior since data started in 1967 was 2.7 million in October 1982.2 If we’d had knowledge of these two datapoints on 1/1/20, there is no way that we would have expected the S&P 500 Total Return Index…