Analysis of Recent Market Events The past week in financial markets has been action packed, to say the least. We hope this post can help you understand what just happened and what it may mean for your portfolio. Let’s start with the consensus view as of market close March 8, 2023, or roughly one week ago. Preliminary reports indicated that February US economic conditions were still very strong, with the implication that inflation was still much too high. Fed Chair…

There were few places to hide in 2022 as both bonds and stocks dropped significantly.1 Interestingly, S&P 500 full-year 2022 earnings are likely to come in almost exactly as analysts predicted back in December 2021, meaning most companies actually performed fairly well financially last year.2 The problem was the huge rise in interest rates, caused by shockingly higher than expected inflation. As interest rates rise, existing bond prices fall as investors equalize new bond issues with older, lower-rate bonds. As…

One month ago, we pointed to the September 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) release as the key upcoming catalyst for the market. Would it be a market calming event showing a solid disinflationary trend or a repeat of the June 10 CPI release that sent the market to new lows? Unfortunately, we got the latter, with inflation still running way too hot across a broad array of categories. This will force global central banks to respond with even more interest…

The S&P 500 Total Return Index is currently down roughly 12% for the year, well above its low of down 23% on June 16, but still a long ways from a full recovery. For bonds, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield remains volatile, swinging between 2.5%-3.5% since early April. Its current 3.1% level is roughly double the 1.5% from December 31, 2021. Will stocks and bonds go on to set new lows or record highs before year-end? While neither we at…

The S&P 500 Total Return Index is now down roughly 15% year-to-date, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index not far behind, down roughly 10%. The main causes of the dual equity and bond downturns have been the same all year:   Inflation: The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) of +8.5% was the highest since 1981.1 Monetary policy tightening: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate from its current 0.8% to over 3.0% by March 2023.2…

Shortly after we sent out our market update yesterday, Russia invaded Ukraine with military strikes throughout the nation, clearly going well beyond the disputed Donbas region. While not yet a worst-case scenario as civilians/major cities do not appear to have been targeted, these events represent a dramatic escalation and go far beyond the fighting that occurred in Ukraine in 2014. Russia’s end goal remains unclear. At the very least, they appear to be looking to expand and strengthen control of…

The S&P 500 is now down over 10% year-to-date, with the NASDAQ and Russell 1000 Growth down over 15%. We wanted to update you on what we believe to be the primary drivers of the downturn and our thoughts, as the majority of the decline has come since our last communication on January 14. What has changed since January 14? The main update has been corporate earnings, with more large firms echoing JPMorgan (who reported January 14) and citing rising expenses due…

The global economy has bounced back from the pandemic faster and more robust than almost anyone expected, thanks in large part to tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulus from governments around the world. This year will test how economies can endure that assistance being dialed down or removed altogether, though plans vary dramatically for different countries around the world. As we look into 2022, these are a few key topics and events that are top of mind: Inflation continues to be a…