Global stocks are suffering a steep decline this morning. At the time of this writing, the S&P 500 is down roughly 3%. The drivers of today’s sell-off are fairly clear: coronavirus and Bernie Sanders. Here we discuss our understanding of both of these events and what it means for your portfolio management at GGS. Coronavirus: The spread of high rates of coronavirus infection to Iran, Italy and South Korea over the weekend have increased fears that the virus could become…

After a spectacular 2019 (S&P 500 Total Return Index +31%), the US market has continued its run to start the new year, up 3% through yesterday’s close. The S&P 500 TR Index has now gone 70 consecutive trading days without a 1.0%+ move in either direction, rising 12.5% over that span. This positive trend coupled with a rare lack of volatility has been driven by two primary catalysts: The US/China phase one trade deal has eased anxieties over further trade…

Since the S&P 500 Index peaked on July 26 at $3025, it has fallen 6% to today’s closing price of $2840, highlighted by extreme down moves on August 5 (-3.0%) and today (-2.9%). Note that the S&P 500 is still doing well year-to-date up almost 15%. Market sentiment the past few years has shifted multiple times from one extreme to the other. Either everything is great and concerns are minimal or brushed aside (see January 2018, September 2018 and July…

It has been exactly one month since our last market commentary, and the market selloff has continued. In November, we described three overhangs that weighed on the market: global trade, Italian debt, and interest rates. Since that time, Italian debt has become less of a concern as the Italian government struck a budget deal with the EU. On the other hand, the remaining concerns over global trade and interest rates have intensified. Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised…

Since our last commentary on October 11, 2018, the S&P 500 has both held a minor rally from $2728 to $2814 and subsequently fallen even further to today’s close of $2642. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the three primary overhangs – global trade concerns, Italian debt issues and rising interest rates – remain roughly the same as they were on October 11. Fundamentally, the main incremental negative has been weaker than expected corporate earnings. Third quarter reports were actually strong on…